+Why Ignoring Them In 2026 Will Be Pol. Suicide
•Writes ABIMBOLA TOOKI
As the 2026 governorship election
approaches, Osun State is already bubbling with its familiar political electricity;
from roadside debates in Owode to beer-parlour analyses in Ilesa, and from
newspaper editorials to endless WhatsApp voice notes discussing one aspirant or
the other.
In every corner of the state, one
question echoes: Who will emerge as the next occupant of Abere Government
House?
While both major political parties,
the ruling PDP and the opposition APC, are recalculating, re-strategising, and,
in some cases, re-arguing old battles, one fact remains consistent across the
years: No one becomes governor of Osun without conquering Osogbo and Olorunda.
The Political Equation: Osogbo +
Olorunda = Victory
Politics may be an art of numbers, but
in Osun, it’s also an art of Geography.And nowhere is that geography more
politically powerful than the capital zone, Osogbo and Olorunda.
These 2 LGAs are not just dots on the
map; they are the heartbeat of Osun politics, the economic nerve centre, and
the seat of perception.When Osogbo sneezes, the rest of the state catches a
political cold.
Let’s check the mathematics that have
defined three elections in a row.
NUMBERS DON’T LIE
Year Winner Party Osogbo + Olorunda
Margin Share of Statewide Margin Outcome
2014 Rauf Aregbesola APC +43,400 (APC)
42.6% Aregbesola’s victory rested on near-total dominance of the capital zone.
2018 Gboyega Oyetola APC +15,275 (APC)
Decisive Urban voters saved APC in a razor-thin rerun.
2022 Ademola Adeleke PDP +10,090 (PDP)
35.6% PDP flipped both LGAs for the first time, a political earthquake.
When you add it up, one clear trend
emerges:Every single governor in the past decade has ridden into power on the
shoulders of Osogbo and Olorunda voters.
2014: The Fortress of Aregbesola
The 2014 election was a masterclass in
urban mobilisation.Rauf Aregbesola, the fiery orator from Ilesa, transformed Osogbo
and Olorunda into a political fortress.
In Osogbo, he won 39,983 votes against
Omisore’s 14,499, a gap of 25,484.In Olorunda, he swept 26,551 against 8,635,
another 17,916 margin.Combined, that’s 43,400 votes, almost half of his
statewide winning margin of 101,937.
Aregbesola’s secret? He turned Osogbo
into a construction site and a theatre of progress, building roads, bridges,
and a political brand rooted in visibility.
The civil servants felt seen, the
market women felt heard, and even the okada riders felt included. When the
votes came, they repaid him in kind.
It was Osogbo that gave him his
“Second Term Mandate of Grace.”
2018: The Warning Bells for APC
By 2018, the fortress began to
crack.Gboyega Oyetola inherited Aregbesola’s broom but forgot that sweeping
requires energy and goodwill.
Civil servants were restless, salaries
were half, and morale was quarter.The political family had split between
“Oyetolists” and “Aregbe loyalists.” The APC camp looked like a house where
everyone wanted to be landlord.
Still, Osogbo and Olorunda gave
Oyetola a fighting chance:
Osogbo: +8,880 votes Olorunda: +6,395
votes Combined: 15,275 votes, enough to tip the balance in a contest that was
decided by a few thousand ballots after a rerun.
The message was clear: Osogbo had
saved APC one last time. But the warning was there: the capital zone was no
longer a guaranteed stronghold. The centre was shaking.
2022: The Great Swing and the “Imole”
Revolution
Fast forward to 2022. The people of
Osogbo and Olorunda had had enough.They flipped the script and the ruling
party.
Ademola Adeleke, the “dancing senator”
turned governor, pulled off what many thought impossible: he won both Osogbo
and Olorunda, turning the tide for PDP for the first time in modern Osun
politics.
Osogbo: PDP +7,449 margin
Olorunda: PDP +2,641 margin
Combined: +10,090 votes, roughly 36%
of Adeleke’s total winning margin statewide.
It was a political earthquake, and the
aftershocks are still being felt.
Why the turnaround?
(1) Civil service disillusionment.
(2) APC’s internal wars.
(3) Youth enthusiasm and urban
activism.
(4) A candidate who understood
performance optics better than policy lectures.
In one swoop, Osogbo and Olorunda
rewrote Osun’s electoral map.
WHY THE CAPITAL ZONE ALWAYS DECIDES
Let’s face it: the capital is not just
about population, it’s about influence.
(1) Highest Voter Density:Osogbo alone
recorded nearly 55,000 valid votes in 2022, the largest single LGA in the
state. Add Olorunda’s numbers, and you get a combined bloc that can make or
break any statewide contest.
(2) Perception Power:Osogbo is home to
journalists, media stations, civil servants, and social media warriors. What
trends in Osogbo trends across Osun.
(3) Swing Voters:Unlike some rural
LGAs that vote party loyalty, Osogbo voters switch based on issues. They’re
pragmatic, they’ve voted APC, then PDP, and could swing again in 2026.
(4) Elite Influence:When traditional
rulers and community elders in Osogbo speak, politicians listen. Right now,
they are speaking loudly: “It is Osogbo’s turn.”
THE OSOGBO AGENDA:
For the first time in recent memory,
Osogbo and Olorunda are united behind one sentiment, the next governor must
come from the capital zone.Traditional rulers, market leaders, youths, and even
opposing party elders are converging on this shared conviction.Their argument
is simple: since the creation of Osun in 1991, no indigene of Osogbo has
governed the state. Yet, the city has produced the highest votes, paid the
heaviest dues, and housed the government for over three decades.
This time, they’re saying, “No Osogbo
candidate, no vote.”And that’s not a threat, it’s a strategy.
The Face of the Capital: Kunle Rasheed
Adegoke (K-Rad)
Among the crop of Osogbo-born
aspirants, one name keeps resonating in both elite circles and grassroots
discussions: Kunle Rasheed Adegoke (K-Rad).
A senior advocate, reform-minded
technocrat, and political thinker, K-Rad is not just preparing to run; he’s
ready to govern.
For over 15 years, he’s invested in
policy research, civic engagement, and intellectual groundwork for Osun’s
development. His social media platforms read more like an economic blueprint
than a campaign page, from ideas on internal revenue generation to plans for
industrial revitalisation.
To many, K-Rad represents the blend of
brain and bravery that Osun’s next chapter requires, a modern-day Awolowo with
digital-age sensibilities.
As one civil servant recently joked at
a public event, “If Osun were a court case, K-Rad would have already won on
points of law.”
2026:THE STAKES COULDN’T BE HIGHER
With PDP looking to retain power and
APC desperate to reclaim Abere, both parties face a historic test: Will they
recognise Osogbo’s electoral weight?
For APC in particular, the answer
could define its survival.Choosing a candidate outside the Osogbo-Olorunda axis
might be politically suicidal, given the current agitation and arithmetic.
The people of the capital are awake,
vocal, and united and they now know the value of their votes.
THE BOTTOM LINE
In the last decade, Osogbo and Olorunda
have delivered three governors, swinging power between APC and PDP with
surgical precision.They have moved from being a loyal bloc to being a deciding
bloc.Any serious strategist who ignores that will be committing political
self-sabotage.
In Osun politics, the path to power is
not through the mountains of Ijesa or the valleys of Ife, it’s through the
streets of Osogbo.
So, as the 2026 campaign drums begin
to beat, the smartest politicians are already whispering one mantra: “Win
Osogbo, win Osun.”
Because, as one witty Osogbo elder put
it recently over a bowl of amala and gbegiri: “Even if you build your campaign
headquarters on the moon, if Osogbo no gree for you, you’re only contesting for
governor of your dreams.”
- By ABIMBOLA TOOKI
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