Why It Will Be Difficult For The Opposition

•To Defeat Pres. BOLA TINUBU In 2027

With the passing of each day, it is fast becoming increasingly difficult for the Opposition to defeat Pres. Bola Tinubu. And he is happy about it. For a very long time now, it has been difficult for the Opposition to organise itself into a formidable force to weaken the strangle hold of Pres. Tinubu on power. The ADC which is the coalition of opposing forces to Pres. Tinubu has not been able to galvanise all the formidable forces opposed to President Tinubu.

That was why a former presidential aspirant of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Dele Momodu, has said that the Nigerian opposition is ill-prepared to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.

Momodu made the assertion in a statement posted on his verified X handle last Tuesday, questioning how opposition presidential hopefuls intend to defeat Tinubu when they have yet to agree on a unified strategy.

Now, a Chieftain of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, Momodu maintained that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar remains the only contender with the structure and seriousness required for the race.

The publisher of Ovation magazine wrote: “I often wonder how some opposition Presidential aspirants can think of knocking out President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027, when they have not even come together to agre on a common strategy. Let me emphasize that contesting for the highest office in any country is no child’s place.

“The only opposition leader who seems to understand what it takes to be competitive is Alhaji Atiku Abubakar”.

In the last few months, many governors and federal lawmakers have decamped. Only a few days ago, lawmakers loyal to former Governor and FCT Minister, Nyesom Ezenwo Wike, led by Speaker Rt. Hon. Martins Chike Amaewhule, formally exited the embattled People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and entered the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The defection, signed and declared in the Rivers Assembly’s adopted chambers at the Quarters Auditorium, signalled not just a party shift but a renewed battle line in Rivers’ fierce political duel.

But immediately after the thunder of their declaration, another explosive concern erupted—this time against Governor Siminalayi Fubara. The legislators openly condemned the governor’s failure to present a full list of commissioner nominees for screening since the expiration of the emergency political truce.

House Leader, Hon. Major Jack, described the governor’s continued operation with only eight commissioners—excluding the Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice—as “a brazen constitutional breach that undermines the structure of governance.” He stated firmly: “The Rivers State Executive Council cannot function in vacuum. It is constitutionally mandated that commissioners must be properly screened and confirmed by this Assembly. What we are witnessing is executive silence deliberately strangling due process.”

Speaker Amaewhule reinforced the criticism, accusing the governor of dereliction of constitutional duty: “The governor has a responsibility to transmit names of commissioner nominees to the legislature. This delay is not clerical—it is tactical. And it is untenable. Rivers people deserve a complete cabinet, not a fragment.”

The lawmakers maintained that the refusal to constitute a full executive council has paralyzed policy execution and weakened the administrative arteries of the state. They warned that governance cannot be run on selective appointments and informal advisers.

Amid the political turbulence, the House also reaffirmed its earlier resolution adopting the newly designated Auditorium at the Assembly Quarters as its recognized Hallowed Chamber. The decision, they noted, stands firm despite attempts by opposing actors to challenge its legitimacy. The affirmation was read into record to solidify continuity of legislative sessions and avoid external interference.

Chief Tony Chidugam Okocha, APC State Chairman, who received the defected lawmakers, hailed their move as “the return of legislative sanity.” According to him: “When a governor refuses to complete his cabinet, the legislature must intervene. What Amaewhule and his colleagues have done today is not defection alone—it is restitution for a state drifting under executive withholding.”

The House session ended with sharpened political undertones—one bloc now fully aligned with the national ruling party, and another resisting what they see as creeping executive overreach.

The message from the Amaewhule-led Assembly was unmistakable: they have crossed to APC, but they have not crossed out of oversight. In their words, governance in Rivers cannot run on half-engine, mute transmissions, and constitutional shortcuts.

All the opposing parties are in a big mess. Labour party is embroiled in leadership crisis that appears to be deepening with each passing day, while the PDP is yet to get itself out of the mess bequeathed to it by the Nyesom Wike led G-5 which helped Tinubu secure millions of votes in some key states, including winning in Rivers during the last presidential elections.

In fact, as it is, Peter Obi does not even know yet on which platform he intends to run come 2027 because it is highly unlikely that he won’t leave the Labour Party as a result of the myriads of crises plaguing the party. And in the event that he chooses to stay with the party and contest the 2027 presidential election on the party’s platform, a party that lacks a national structure strong enough to help him win. It was this same lack of party structure that worked against him the last time. The Labour Party didn’t have agents spread across all the polling booths where elections were held in all the 774 local governments in the country. This was a major problem for Peter Obi at the last elections and it will still be a big problem because nothing has changed yet. It takes massive funding for a party to have agents represent it across the nation and the issue of funding is still a major issue bedevelling the Labour Party till this very moment..

For the PDP, the story is not any better. Every passing day, we read about hundreds of members of the PDP dumping the party for the APC. At the House of Reps, the Senate, PDP members are leaving the party for the ruling party. Even now, it is being rumoured that some PDP governors will soon leave the party for the APC. The crisis within the party is not looking anything near being resolved. PDP is getting weaker and losing its appeal. Nigerians have become disenchanted with the PDP, they no longer talk about the PDP with the passion they talked about it many years ago.

The fact that Atiku Abubakar is a Northerner is also a factor that will work against him because of the geopolitics the country gives significant consideration when it comes to who becomes the president. There is an unwritten agreement that allows the rotation of power amongst the major geographical regions. This was what worked largely against Atiku the last time. Buhari, a Muslim northerner, had just finished 8 years in power, and Atiku, another northern Muslim, wanted to take over power from him. This was the grouse the G-5 led by Nyesom Wike had against him. It didn’t work for him in 2023, it still cannot work for him in 2027. The understanding is that whichever region is in power would be allowed to do its full term of eight years. Tinubu, a Southerner, has to be allowed to finish his 8 years which will take him to 2031.

Many political analysts believe President Tinubu already has a very firm grip of the nation’s political system. He is already making incursions into the East where he recorded his lowest performances during the last election by taking deliberate steps to appease the Igbos who clearly did not vote for him 2023. His appointment of Bianca Ojukwu as Minister of state for Foreign Affairs has been seen as a political master stroke by many. There’s no gainsaying many Igbos are extremely pleased with the appointment.

The appointment of Dave Umahi as Minister of Works, one of the biggest ministeries in the land, also impressed many Igbos. Also, the South-East Development Commission, set up to help the south east develop many of its regions devastated during the civil war, has brought joy to many Igbo elites. This is something no government granted them until President Tinubu came.

But the one that has left many shocked was when the President visited Enugu State, the outpouring of affection and support showed by the people of Enugu left many talking ever since. It was unbelievable to see Igbos by the road side singing the praises of Tinubu.

What this simply means is that the voting pattern in the east come 2027 will be very different this time. And if that happens, this means Peter Obi may not have the sort of landslide victories he enjoyed in the east like he did in 2023. Already, a lot of Labour Party chieftains and members are leaving the party in droves for the APC.

Another big master stroke scored by President Tinubu is the autonomy granted local governments. What this means is that local governments can now receive their allocations directly from the Federation Account Allocation Committee. And, ultimately, it means that the governors will no longer have control over the funds of the local governments and in effect, local government chairmen will no longer be answerable to the state governors.